Finance Tips

Mortgage rates have a lot to do with how well the economy is performing. When mortgage rates go up, people can no longer afford to invest money in new properties. This, of course, brings a slow down to the building trade and it also means less money will be flowing through the economy.

On the other hand, when mortgage rates go down, more people are able to buy homes. The further down rates fall, the lower the income needed to buy homes. When homes are being bought, the building trade flourishes and this stimulates the economy in many ways.

Remember high interest rates?

It’s been 20 years since we’ve seen double-digit mortgage interest rates. Going back to the late ’70s and early ’80s, double-digit mortgage rates were the norm. It wasn’t until about 1985 after the Reagan administration had put an end to stagflation and the misery index that haunted the Carter years, that mortgage rates found buoyancy at around 7%.

Since that time, mortgage rates have fluctuated between 9% and about 5.5%. All in all, it has been a long stable interest rate environment that we have enjoyed over these past years.

Higher or lower?

Now, the question is where do interest rates go from here. By reading the charts, we will attempt to predict their future movement, just as if we were reading the commodities charts to get a handle on which way the price of soybeans were headed. Then, we’re going to make a prediction about another commodity that is sure to be shocking!

At this time, it is wise to make a disclaimer. First, no one can truly predict the future and second, any world event can change what the future looks like now in a heartbeat. Also, you can’t overlook the fact these unforeseen world events can happen out of the blue. With that behind us, let’s take a look at charts.

The past 18 years

Throughout the ’90s, interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages ranged between 9% and 7%. At the time George W. Bush took office, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 8.75 %. From here, it eased downward steadily through the first George W. Bush term. It actually hit a low of 4.75% in late 2003. Here, interest rates ranged between 6.5% and about 5.5% for the next 3 years. This was an uncommonly stable interest rate environment and it was one of the reasons the housing market became red hot, and yes, overbought.

In 2006, the trend broke above 5.5% to about 6.5%, but rates never went any higher. Now, the interest rates are hovering around six percent and trending downward.

Reading the charts

The technical trader, that is, one who trades commodities by reading charts, would certainly believe interest rates, since they are heading downward, would have to once again test the low of 4.75%. It will be important to see if a double bottom is made at 4.75%. If this bottom is made, interest rates will go up.

Because of underlying fundamentals of the market, for instance the Fed trying to lower interest rates to stimulate the housing market, it seems much more likely interest rates will break through the 4.75% low once they arrive there. If they do, a new downward trend will be on the way. Just how much lower interest rates could get, is anybody’s guess. However, it certainly isn’t out of the question we could see 4% 30-year fixed mortgage rates sometime before this downward trend ends.

4%!

Historically speaking, 4% is a very low interest rate, but at this time it truly looks like we are much more apt to see 4% than a higher number, like 7%. So, for what it’s worth, this is my prediction. We will see the interest rate on a fixed 30-year mortgage somewhere down around 4% before an inflationary aspect of the economy takes over.

Where you think this inflationary aspect will come from? Well, here is another prediction and you may find it more astounding than the first one!

The impossible dream

It’s all over for the crude oil rally. Crude oil is overbought! There is no reason for crude oil to be trading above $100 a barrel. Like the tech stock boom of the ’90s and the housing market bubble of a couple years ago, it is a rally that cannot be sustained forever!

It’s anybody’s guess as to what the true market value of crude oil is right now. However, to think it is somewhere between $50 and $60 a barrel would be logical. However, when prices fall they tend to go through the true market value before they float back up to it.

If this crude oil market bubble burst follows the same modus operandi normal market bubble bursts follow, I can’t see why it is impossible to see $35 a barrel crude oil again; at least for a little while.

What would this mean for the price of gas? Maybe $1.49 a gallon? Well this may seem totally out of whack with what we’re hearing constantly coming from our news reports day and night, don’t think it can’t happen.

Back to reality

Certainly, there will be a time when $100 will not be too high a price for a barrel of crude oil. There will come a time when $3.50 is not too much for a gallon of gas. However, the charts are telling us that time is not here yet.

So, cheap gas, like the JFK, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush tax cuts will stimulate the economy, and like the Bill Clinton Tariff agreements, it will make the cost of living lower which will make more goods affordable to the public. These things, though healthy for the economy, will bring on some inflation and this will break the interest rate downtrend.

I know these predictions seem pretty goofy and maybe they are! Still, my strategy is to believe they will happen and if they don’t, at least I’ll be happy believing them for now. Then again, if they do happen, we’ll all be happy!

Home Mortgage:

Home mortgage is one of the most preferred refinancing options. They are secured loans that offer lower interest rates and flexible repayment periods. Having a collateral security enables the mortgage lenders offer the lowest interest rates possible. Lower monthly repayment amount is another advantage of a home mortgage finance option. This is done by extending the repayment period according to the financial condition of the borrower.

Factors Affecting Interest Rates:

o Amount of Loan:

At the beginning of every year loan limits and their respective interest rates are fixed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Where the loan amounts cross the said limits their interest rates tend to increase.

o Term of Loan:

Shorter loan terms reduce the interest cost of the loan but increase the monthly pay out amount.

o Nature of Interest:

Opting for an adjustable interest rate might initially seem to reduce the cost in comparison with fixed interest rate, but over a period of time they tend to raise the cost as the rates increase.

o Size of Down Payment:

Where the down payment made is more than 20% of the loan amount, the interest rates are low, when compared to down payments of 5% and less. Higher down payment lowers the monthly liability.

o Closing cost:

These are the fees paid by the lender. You bear a higher interest cost if you do not wish to pay all the closing cost, thereby providing the lender with an additional interest over the term of the loan.

o Credit Quality:

Maintaining a positive credit score is essential for availing loans at a lower interest rate. The FICO credit score is considered before granting loans.

o Income Level:

The income level of a person determines his interest liability. Where the income earned is greater than his liability a lower interest rate is charged, while on the reverse a higher rate is charged in spite of a good credit score.

Making mortgage rates predictions is a little tricky. Financial markets, including those which set share prices and mortgage interest rates, are chaotic systems. This is not to say they are chaotic in the common usage of the term, meaning something with no order to it at all, but they are chaotic in the mathematical sense, in that the formulas which describe how mortgage interest rates are determined, which are the formulas used to make mortgage rates predictions, have self-referential components.

Making mortgage interest rates predictions is like making weather predictions – it is impossible to be precisely accurate with mortgage interest rates predictions, and the further in advance you try to predict mortgage interest rates, the greater the margin of error in the prediction.

On the other hand, chaotic systems are predictable in broad terms.

If you think about predicting the weather, you may not be able to predict the top temperature for a given day in August, but you can reasonably sure it will be within a certain range – say, if you live in Orlando, between 80 and 95 degrees F, and if you live in Copenhagen, between 16 and 25 degrees C.

Just as climate gives a broad indicator of summer top temperatures, economic climate gives a broad indicator of mortgage interest rates.

Factors Which Make Mortgage Rates Rise: Inflation

So called “real interest rates”, the interest rates which move in response to supply and demand in the financial markets, are independent of inflation. To get from the “real interest rate” to the “nominal interest rate”, which is what your bank will charge you for your mortgage, you simply add on the annualised percentage rate of inflation.

Factors Which Make Mortgage Rates Rise: Reduced Availability Of Credit

Financial markets operate on supply and demand. If there is a limited supply of anything, then it will go to those who are willing or able to pay more for it. The same is true of mortgage money. Mortgage rates predictions will take into account whether the supply of money is increasing or decreasing, and likewise, the trends in demand for money.

Factors Which Make Mortgage Rates Predictions Rise: Increased Risk

Apart from the underlying real interest rate determined by the broader economy, the rate of inflation, and the supply of money available for mortgage lending, there is another factor which comes into play in any investment decision – risk. Mortgage rates in general will depend on the overall risk involved in the housing market.

If house values plummet, as they have in some parts of the US, then the default risk for the banks suddenly increases, which means that they will be wanting to charge higher mortgage interest rates; predictions will take this upward pressure into account.

Factors Which Make Mortgage Rates Predictions Fall: Government Intervention

The US Government is an 800-pound gorilla in the financial markets. By issuing Treasury bonds at different interest rates, the government can influence the overall market for money, and thus affect the “real” interest rate.

Mortgage rates predictions based on purely economic considerations might indicate that mortgage interest rates are due to rise, but while the political pressure is running high, and in an election year, the government will do everything in its power, however economically irresponsible in the long term, to push the interest rate rises off until after the November elections. Mortgage rates predictions must take this political distortion of the financial markets into account.

The most important factor you should consider when looking for a home mortgage is your interest rate. Getting even a slightly lower interest rate on your house mortgage can save you tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your mortgage.

The interest rate on your native mortgage, in fact, can actually have you paying twice for your home what it actually sold for by the time the mortgage is paid off in twenty or thirty years. So while your home may appreciate in value during that time so that you come out even, the housing market is notoriously unpredictable. It’s better to just look for a low interest mortgage and keep your money.

The Two Types Of Home Mortgages

Your property mortgage will be one of two types: adjustable rate or fixed rate. An adjustable rate mortgage has an interest rate tied to the prime lending rate and will rise and fall along with it. With an adjustable rate mortgage, your monthly payment will go up or down as the Federal Reserve raises or lowers the prime rate, and that can be either very bad, or very good, for you.

If you are someone who prefers to be able to budget for a consistent mortgage payment each month, you should definitely stay away from the adjustable real estate mortgage. You may be unhappy if the prime rate falls and your friends with adjustable mortgages have lower payments for a while, but you will never have to worry about being caught by a raise in your rates. And if you keep up on your payments, and build equity in your home you may be able to refinance if it appears that mortgage rates are going to continue dropping.

Be On the Lookout For Scammers

When you start looking for a home refinance you should first check the background of the prospective lenders in your area. Some mortgage scammers engage in the process of having fraudulent appraisals done which price homes at far more than their fair market value, enabling them to trick home buyers into taking out mortgages which are much higher than necessary.

Because those homeowners have to make excessively high property mortgage payments, they often get behind and in attempting to sell their homes to keep out of foreclosure, find .that the houses are worth far less than they thought. They either have to take the loss and find a way to make up the balance to pay off the personal mortgage, or face foreclosure, in which case the scammers take title to the home and resell it.

The laws against these kinds of real estate mortgage scams have been stiffened in many states since the collapse of the US housing market, but there are still thousands of shady lenders around trying to make a quick buck in any way they can. So you must be very vigilant in choosing your home refinance lender, and you would also be very wise to get an independent appraisal of the home in which you are interested. If it is significantly lower than the one your potential lender provides, take you business somewhere else.